Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Nipah virus (NiV) is a sporadic yet extremely deadly zoonotic pathogen, with reported case fatality rates of 40%-75% in impacted areas. Prolonged incubation, documented relapse, and delayed-onset encephalitis following apparent recovery indicate that NiV dynamics are influenced by intricate temporal processes. However, mechanistic contributions of these processes to epidemic persistence remain poorly understood. In this study, we develop and analyze a delay differential equation model for NiV tr...

Biological fitness quantifies the efficiency and selective advantage of pathogens and hosts in their bilateral interaction. Key questions--such as how much more infectious an emerging variant is compared with its predecessor, or how much protection vaccination offers relative to no vaccination--require fitness to be measured systematically, in real time, and ideally beyond controlled laboratory settings. We propose an approach that infers biological fitness from mostly non-biological data on inf...

Biological ageing begins before birth, with early-life exposures shaping late-life health. These exposures drive health inequities early, yet specific exposures and the composition of the ageing exposome remain largely undefined. This gap may persist as the field lacks agnostic investigations accounting for non-linearity, interactions and subtle signals. We aimed to identify exposures predictive of epigenetic ageing accumulated during childhood and adolescence and explore the composition of the...

A recent randomized clinical trial in non-small cell lung cancer1 confirms what numerous observational studies have reported time of day (ToD) may dramatically influence treatment outcomes in cancer patients. In this recent trial median overall survival (OS) decreased from 28 months in the early ToD arm to 16.8 months in the late ToD arm. We raise the concern that clinical trial outcomes may be influenced by seemingly minor biases in treatment time across arms. We also suggest that by measuring ...

Background: Human-to-human transmission of pathogens fundamentally depends on interactions among infectious and susceptible individuals, yet traditional population-scale models often overlook the stochastic, behaviour-driven, and highly heterogeneous nature of these interactions. Methods: Here, we develop a large-scale actor-based model capturing early epidemic dynamics of a novel respiratory pathogen on dynamic contact networks. We build these networks upon explicitly integrating detailed demog...

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is considerably more severe among individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), leading to higher parasite loads, frequent relapse, and increased mortality. To examine the epidemiological interaction between the two diseases, we develop a comprehensive VL-HIV co-infection model that incorporates transmission pathways, treatment effects, and relapse dynamics. The model is parameterized using real-time data from Bihar, India, including monthly VL-only an...

Ambient air pollution has been associated with increased incidence of chronic disease and is estimated to contribute towards 4.2 million early deaths annually. Whilst the health impacts are well described, less is understood about the underlying biological mechanisms, particularly when considering the co-occurrence of multiple pollutants. Using an atmospheric chemistry transportation model (EMEP4UK), we generate pre-baseline sampling pollution exposure estimates for eight pollutants in Generatio...

Wastewater is increasingly being recognized as an important data stream that can contribute to infectious disease surveillance and forecasting. With this recognition, a growing number of statistical inference approaches are being developed to use wastewater data to provide quantitative insights into epidemiological dynamics. However, few existing approaches have allowed for systematic integration of data streams for inference, for example by combining case incidence data and/or serological data ...

BackgroundMeasurement of human antibodies against Anopheles salivary proteins that are injected during mosquito bites may serve as biomarkers of mosquito biting exposure. These biomarkers have been suggested as surrogate outcomes in trials of vector control intervention effectiveness, however, studies to-date have been largely descriptive and do not directly quantify the instantaneous nor cumulative effects of the intervention on antibody outcomes. In this study, we sought to explore the use of ...

The spread of Anopheles stephensi into the Horn of Africa represents one of the main challenges for malaria control, given the species ecological plasticity and resistance to multiple insecticides. In response to the World Health Organizations 2022 vector alert, an adaptive, model-based spatial surveillance framework was developed and evaluated to improve detection, mapping accuracy, and operational responsiveness during invasion. Adaptive surveillance utilises initial observations to guide subs...

BackgroundArtemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are the most widely used treatment for Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Kelch 13 mutations associated with artemisinin partial resistance (ART-R) have emerged in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and are now reported in an increasing number of countries. ACT treatment failure rates are at risk of unprecedented increase. To summarise existing surveillance data and guide future surveillance, we produce modelled estimates of the spatiotemporal distribut...

Molecular subtyping of cancer is traditionally defined in transcriptomic space, yet routine clinical deployment is limited by the availability and cost of sequencing. Meanwhile, histopathology captures rich morphological information that is known to correlate with molecular state but lacks a principled, mechanistic bridge to gene-level representations. We propose a graph-constrained learning framework that aligns morphology-derived signals with a fixed, data-driven gene network discovered via hi...

Importance: Lung cancer mortality in the United States has fallen substantially in recent decades, yet the relative influence of behavioral, environmental, socioeconomic, and therapeutic factors and their sex specific contributions remains unclear. Understanding these drivers is essential to sustain progress and reduce persistent disparities. Objective: To quantify how behavioral, environmental, socioeconomic, and therapeutic determinants collectively shaped US lung cancer mortality from 1994 to...

BackgroundThe widespread insecticide resistance increasingly threatens malaria elimination, prompting a reassessment of vector control strategies. As Tanzania transitions from standard pyrethroid-only insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) to new-generation nets, evaluating the impact of this shift on malaria transmission and resistance is critical. MethodsUsing the agent-based malaria model, EMOD, we assessed the impact of three ITN types, standard pyrethroid-only nets, pyrethroid-PBO nets (Olyset(R)...

Immune effector cell-associated neurotoxicity syndrome (ICANS) is a common and life-threatening complication of chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy, with early detection being critical for timely intervention and improved outcomes. Cytokines such as interleukin-6 (IL-6) are key mediators of the inflammatory cascade underlying ICANS pathogenesis, but prospective clinical evidence for their predictive value is limited. Here we quantify IL-6 levels in a prospective cohort of 40 CAR-T pat...

BackgroundThe relationship between hip osteoarthritis (hip OA) and Alzheimers disease (AD) presents a critical paradox within the emerging "bone-brain axis": widespread phenotypic comorbidity sharply contradicts evolutionary theories of biological antagonism. This study integrates longitudinal and multi-omic analyses to determine whether this clinical overlap masks an underlying genetic neuroprotection. MethodsWe analyzed longitudinal phenotypic data from 261,767 UK Biobank participants using C...

Acute kidney injury (AKI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are two interconnected clinical conditions, both defined by degree of functional impairment, but with heterogeneous clinical trajectories. Using new transcriptomic technologies, recent studies have described the cellular diversity in the healthy and injured kidney at the single cell level. Here, we used single nucleus transcriptomics to investigate the molecular diversity and commonalities in kidney biopsies from over 150 participants wi...

Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is the leading cause of kidney cancer-related death, but how the tumor microenvironment shapes patient survival is not completely understood. Here, we describe the characterization of ccRCC tumor ecosystems from 498 patients using imaging mass cytometry with a focus on tumor, myeloid, and T cell landscapes. Data from more than 3 million single cells is analyzed using machine-learning to identify key ecosystem features that outperform basic clinical data fo...

With significant population fractions in many societies who refuse vaccines, it is important to reconsider how vaccination is incorporated into compartmental epidemiology models. It is still most common to apply the vaccination rate to the entire class of susceptibles, rather than to use the more realistic assumption that the vaccination rate function should depend only on the population of susceptibles who are willing and able to receive a vaccination. This study uses a simple generic disease m...

IntroductionGenome-wide association studies (GWAS) for kidney function have mainly focused on creatinine-based glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcrea), which is affected by variation in muscle mass. Moreover, the genetic basis of the sexual dimorphism of chronic kidney disease is underexplored. MethodsWe performed a GWA meta-analysis for creatinine clearance (CrCl), a muscle mass-independent kidney function phenotype, in 58,976 individuals of European descent from the Lifelines Cohort Study. Res...