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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences's content profile, based on 2130 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 2.33% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Towards the Virtual Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Patient: Inferring Cortical Excitability through Whole-Brain Dynamical Modeling

Angiolelli, M.; Demuru, M.; Lopez, E. T.; Hashemi, M.; Ziaeemeh, A.; Rabuffo, G.; Trojsi, F.; Granata, C.; Tafuri, D.; De Luca, M.; Gallo, E.; Jirsa, V.; Depannemaecker, D.; Sorrentino, P.

2026-06-10 neurology 10.64898/2026.06.09.26354829 medRxiv
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Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is increasingly recognized as a multisystem neurodegenerative disorder in which motor-neuron degeneration is accompanied by widespread alterations in cortical dynamics. Among its most reproducible neurophysiological signatures is cortical hyperexcitability, yet how this local excitability imbalance shapes distributed whole-brain activity remains poorly understood. Here, we combined source-reconstructed resting-state MEG data, tractography-informed whole-brain modeling, and simulation-based inference to investigate whether ALS-related alterations in large-scale brain dynamics can be mechanistically explained by changes in cortical excitability. First, we characterized empirical brain dynamics using complementary features spanning regional activity amplitude and variability, functional connectivity, and avalanche-based metrics. These analyses revealed significant alterations in ALS patients relative to healthy controls, as well as associations with clinical impairment and disease staging. To mechanistically interpret these changes, we employed a reduced Wong-Wang whole-brain model in which local recurrent excitation modulates emergent large-scale neural dynamics. Simulations showed that increasing excitability systematically reproduced the empirical dynamical signatures observed in ALS. We then applied a simulation-based inference framework to estimate latent excitability parameters directly from empirical observations. Whole-brain model inversion revealed increased excitability in ALS patients compared with controls. The recovered excitability parameter was associated with disease staging, supporting its clinical relevance as a model-derived descriptor of ALS progression. Finally, by extending the model to estimate frontal and non-frontal excitability separately, we found that ALS-related alterations were predominantly associated with increased frontal excitability, whereas non-frontal regions appeared comparatively less affected. The recovered parameters related to disease staging. Together, these findings provide a mechanistic framework linking altered large-scale brain dynamics in ALS to selective cortical hyperexcitability, explaining how local excitability changes can give rise to global network reorganization. More broadly, they show how computational model inversion can recover latent multiscale pathophysiological processes from empirical neural recordings, offering a non-perturbative alternative to complex experimental paradigms typically required to causally probe local-to-global mechanisms.

2
Limitations of cross-border containment strategies for Bundibugyo ebolavirus

Middleton, C.; Larremore, D.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354820 medRxiv
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An ongoing outbreak of Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was deemed a public health emergency of international concern in May 2026. To prevent cross-border importation, many countries, including the United States, Canada, India, Thailand, and Kenya have already proposed containment strategies, and others are likely to follow suit. How well (or poorly) are screening and quarantine containment measures are likely to work? We leverage established epidemiological theory and develop a mathematical model of traveler screening and post-arrival quarantine for BVD to answer this question. We find that traveler screening via symptom screening or molecular testing will miss the majority of infected travelers, and should be complemented by post-arrival quarantine and monitoring of sufficient duration to detect those with long incubation periods. Our findings underscore the limitations of border screening and the importance of complementary measures like post-arrival quarantine to prevent local importation of BVD.

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TNFRSF13B Common Variants Enhance Antibody-Dependent Complement Activation and Susceptibility to Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Following Respiratory Viral Infection

Naing, L.; de Mattos Barbosa, M. G.; Connell, I. P.; Chicca, J.; Zhao, Z.; Reister, N. A.; Bruchez, A.; Greenspan, N.; McComsey, G.; Platt, J. L.; Cascalho, M.

2026-06-04 allergy and immunology 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354763 medRxiv
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Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a devastating complication of respiratory infections; however, the biological mechanisms that initiate its onset are poorly defined. Here we show that TNFRSF13B polymorphisms increase the risk of ARDS following SARS-CoV-2 infection up to 7.4-fold compared to the WT genotype. The increased risk was not due to immune-deficiency or impaired virus neutralization. On the contrary, TNFRSF13B mutant subjects mounted better antibody neutralization compared to subjects with WT TNFRSF13B. However, IgG from subjects expressing TNFRSF13B variants had less sialic acid, terminal galactose, and fucose than IgG from subjects with a WT genotype. Moreover, IgG from TNFRSF13B mutant subjects exhibited increased recruitment of complement factors. Thus, besides well-known actions governing plasma cell differentiation, TNFRSF13B impacts both affinity maturation and effector functions of IgG in ways that independently govern complement activation controlling inflammatory responses known to trigger ARDS.

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Stochastic Morphodynamics of the Human Aorta Across the Lifespan

Twohig, K. C.; Mansour, M.; Pugar, J. A.; Yuan, K.; Pocivavsek, L.; Klishin, A. A.

2026-06-08 surgery 10.64898/2026.06.05.26355015 medRxiv
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Biological systems evolve as continuous dynamical processes, but at organ-scale and across human lifespans they are rarely observed longitudinally--population data typically exist instead as sparse, cross-sectional snapshots. Inferring lifespan dynamics from such data requires methods distinct from those used at cellular and tissue scales where dense observations are accessible. We address this problem in the thoracic aorta, where surgical decisions currently rest on static, age- and sex-agnostic diameter thresholds that reduce three-dimensional morphology to a single scalar. Treating normal aortic morphology as a stochastic dynamical system, we pose a continuous-time drift-diffusion process in a two-coordinate state space of normalized surface area (A) and normalized fluctuation in integrated Gaussian curvature ({delta} K), and fit closed-form solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation by maximum likelihood to a sex-balanced, age-uniform cohort spanning infancy to age 99. Inter-individual variability is treated as a fitted diffusion parameter rather than as residual scatter, which is distinct from prior normative studies that report variability as scatter around a regression line. The framework identifies two growth regimes for aortic size (childhood expansion followed by persistent adult growth, with adult males growing approximately 70% faster than adult females) and a single dynamical regime for aortic shape, with heteroscedastic variability accumulating at a rate comparable to the mean drift over the lifespan. Applied to independent cohorts of acute and chronic thoracic aortic dissections, the multivariate model identifies over 95% as statistical outliers via Mahalanobis distance, consistently outperforming either coordinate alone. The same probabilistic envelope that describes normal aging thus defines a baseline against which disease can be detected, supporting a shift toward dynamic, age- and sex-aware assessment of thoracic aortic pathology.

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Surfacing Suicidal Risk Through Simulated Social Interaction: Per-Person Language Model Agents as Communicative Stress Tests

shao, w.; Ammerman, B.; Jacobucci, R.

2026-06-06 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354928 medRxiv
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Suicidal risk may be encoded in everyday communication patterns but diluted in routine digital interactions. We introduce a method for surfacing this latent signal: training per-person language model agents on individuals' authored text (the on-screen text each participant typed, captured whenever a keyboard was visible in screenshots) and placing those agents in simulated social interactionsa communicative stress test. Using data from 79 adults with recent suicidal ideation, we ne-tuned individual LoRA adapters on Qwen3-8B using each participant's authored text, then placed agents in standardized conversations with probe personas. Agent-generated risk language was associated with EMA-measured suicidal ideation (r= .576, p < .001), with a single neutral small-talk probe performing nearly as well (r= 551). A shue control conrmed the signal is person-specic (r= .071 when adapters were mismatched), and automated descriptions of participants' general smartphone activity produced no signal, conrming specicity to interpersonal communication. A prompt ablation demonstrated partial robustness to removal of disclosure-encouraging language (r = .430). This proof-of-concept demonstrates that simulated social interaction can amplify latent vulnerability signals, bridging digital phenotyping, generative AI, andsuicide theory.

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A Decade of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's FluSight Influenza Forecasting

Hines, A. G.; Mathis, S. M.; Johansson, M. A.; Biggerstaff, M.; Reed, C.; Borchering, R.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354941 medRxiv
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Since the U.S. 2013/14 influenza season, the CDC's FluSight Challenge has provided a platform for evaluating influenza forecasting models and fostering collaboration across institutions. The Challenge aims to improve the science and enhance the utility of infectious disease forecasts for public health decision making. We analyzed ten years of submitted forecasts (2014/15-2019/20 (influenza-like illness seasons) and 2021/22-2024/25 (hospital admissions seasons)) across a range of model types, including statistical, mechanistic, machine learning, and hybrid models. Influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasts were evaluated using the exponentiated logarithmic score (skill metric) while hospital admissions forecasts were evaluated using the log transformed relative Weighted Interval Score. Corresponding potential performance differences were assessed using Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, and associations with team participation history were evaluated using Spearman's rank correlation. Model performance varied by season, and no single model type consistently outperformed others. In ILI seasons, statistical models generally performed better than mechanistic and machine learning models, though consistent differences were not observed in more recent hospital admissions seasons. Ensemble forecasts showed better overall performance across seasons, and the CDC's FluSight ensemble ranked among the top-performing forecasts every year. We also found a positive correlation between forecast accuracy and the number of years a team participated in the Challenge, with statistically significant associations in four seasons. These findings highlight the benefits of ensemble approaches and sustained engagement in improving forecasting performance, while also underscoring the continued value of forecast evaluation before and following the COVID-19 pandemic. Insights from the FluSight Challenge can guide future infectious disease forecasting efforts and support more effective public health preparedness.

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Prioritizing embryos with lower homozygosity may reduce disease risk in children of related individuals undergoing preimplantation genetic testing

Wolfram, T.; Ahangari, M.; Davidson, I.; Wartschinski, L.; Li, J. H.; Eyre, M.; Stern, D.; Schleede, J.; Haghighi, A.; Carmi, S.; Christensen, M.

2026-06-04 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.05.30.26354526 medRxiv
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Consanguinity is a reproductive union between individuals who share a recent common ancestor. These unions are common in many regions of the world and increase the burden of rare recessive disorders by elevating autozygosity in offspring. Current reproductive genetic screening focuses on a limited set of known pathogenic variants, leaving most recessive risk unaddressed. Here we argue that embryo-level autozygosity, quantified as the fraction of the genome in long runs of homozygosity (FROH), is a potentially actionable genomic biomarker that can be integrated into routine preimplantation genetic testing as a homozygosity-informed embryo-prioritization framework (PGT-H) that can be layered onto existing embryo biopsy workflows when couples are already undergoing IVF with PGT-A or PGT-M. Using forward simulations of first-cousin and double-first-cousin couples, we show that siblings conceived by the same couple span a wide range of FROH; selecting the lowest-FROH candidate from a cohort of five embryos reduces FROH by approximately 40% on average. Combining these reductions with empirical effect-size estimates, we estimate that for first-cousin couples this strategy could reduce risk of intellectual disability by roughly 35-45% (corresponding to an absolute risk reduction of about 1.8-2.2%) and potentially reduce excess recessive disease burden, while also modestly reducing risk of common diseases such as type 2 diabetes. We outline how existing PGT-A and PGT-M workflows could potentially be extended to report embryo-level FROH and discuss ethical and counseling considerations. Autozygosity-based embryo prioritization offers a principled way to address a component of recessive risk that current variant-centric approaches miss.

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A canary in the mind: A single baseline brain scan predicts adolescent depression and anxiety one year later

Deco, G.; Sanz Perl, Y.; Vohryzek, J.; Garcia-Guzman, E.; Pizzagalli, D. A.; Laukkonen, R.; Chandaria, S.; Kringelbach, M. L.

2026-06-10 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355206 medRxiv
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Mood and anxiety disorders emerge predominantly in adolescence, yet they are usually identified only once symptoms have consolidated, when intervention can only be reactive. A marker that registers the loss of healthy brain function before symptoms crystallise would allow earlier and more targeted treatment, much as caged canaries once warned miners of danger before it became apparent. Here we report such a marker using a single baseline resting-state functional MRI scan in 150 adolescents in the Human Connectome Project Boston Adolescent Neuroimaging of Depression and Anxiety (HCP BANDA) cohort, allowing us to prospectively predict depression and anxiety symptoms one year later in held-out participants at r = 0.60, substantially above the effect-size ceiling reported for functional connectivity in the same data. The marker is not computed from raw functional connectivity but read out from a whole-brain generative model fitted to each individual's dynamics, which gives access to interference structure that covariance-based features cannot represent. The regions driving the prediction, including precuneus, ventromedial prefrontal and anterior cingulate cortices, are among those previously implicated in internalising disorders, and the same signature tracks cognitive variation in healthy participants and is mechanistically linked to the efficiency of task-related computation. These findings establish a mechanistically interpretable and prospectively predictive marker of adolescent mental health and define a clear path towards external validation and clinical use.

9
Parental educational attainment polygenic scores contribute to phenotypic heterogeneity in offspring with autism

Gao, S.; Sui, Y.; Tian, P.; Rao, X.; Yan, C.; Xu, Y.; Wang, T.

2026-06-08 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354779 medRxiv
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Educational attainment-related polygenic scores have been implicated in autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but how parental polygenic scores shape offspring phenotypes remains unclear. Using genotyping and exome-sequencing data from 142,357 individuals (55,252 ASD cases) in a large ASD cohort, we dissected the direct and indirect genetic effects of educational attainment-related polygenic scores on ASD phenotypes. Trio-model analyses showed that parental polygenic scores for educational attainment (PGSEA ) were associated with milder core ASD symptoms, including social deficits and repetitive behaviors, predominantly through indirect genetic effects, whereas their associations with comorbidities were driven predominantly by direct genetic effects. PGSEA was also significantly negatively associated with rare variant burden and prenatal factors, although these factors contributed largely independently to most phenotypes. Adjustment for full-scale intelligence quotient (FSIQ) and socioeconomic status (SES) partially attenuated the indirect effects of PGSEA on offspring phenotypes. Finally, higher parental PGSEA was associated with later age at diagnosis in offspring, partly through its protective effects on ASD phenotypes. These findings indicate that indirect genetic effects of parentalPGSEA contribute substantially to phenotypic variation in ASD and highlight family-mediated pathways as an important component of ASD heterogeneity.

10
Hanging on through Omicron, then what? A pre-exit baseline of the U.S. emergency nursing workforce, 2018 to 2022, with implications for the 2026 NSSRN cycle

Squire, K.

2026-06-08 nursing 10.64898/2026.06.07.26355097 medRxiv
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Background. The emergency department in the United States of America functions as a residual access point for healthcare and social services for populations including rural communities, the uninsured, mental health and addiction patients, and the unhoused. The workforce variable that determines unit function (experience density, the concentration of accumulated clinical judgment within a unit workforce) is not measured in hospital accounting systems. Objective. To document workforce composition changes in U.S. emergency nursing across the 2018 and 2022 cycles of the National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses (NSSRN), and to specify falsifiable predictions for the 2026 cycle. Methods. We analyzed NSSRN public-use files using a four-way ED definition extending Castner et al. (2024) and a hospital-bedside-restricted comparator. Variance estimation used jackknife replicate weights for 2018 and Successive Differences Replication for 2022. Burnout was operationalized using the Norful et al. (2023) leaving-reasons proxy across cycles, with sensitivity analysis using the 2022 direct burnout item. Results. A 15-year trajectory (2008-2022) documents progressive experience-density compression: the ED's 15+ year veteran cohort fell from 41.9% to 28.0% over the decade preceding the pandemic, a loss of nearly a third of the senior cohort and a 19.6% decline in mean experience density, before recovering modestly to 33.3% as veteran nurses remained through the pandemic acute phase, leaving the ED as the youngest hospital setting throughout. Hospital non-ED bedside nurses lost senior tenure between cycles (mean 15.65[-&gt;]14.06 years since first licensure; 15+ year share 43.5%[-&gt;]38.7%), while ED nurses retained their senior tail (mean 11.60[-&gt;]12.58). Burnout endorsement rose sharply in both populations (non-ED 27.3%[-&gt;]46.0%; ED 34.2%[-&gt;]61.2%), with the ED-vs-non-ED gap more than doubling. Controlling for tenure, ED status was not independently associated with burnout in 2018 (OR 1.15, 95% CI 0.83-1.59) but was strongly associated in 2022 (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.44-2.55; p<.001). The direct burnout item showed a parallel pattern (OR 2.92, 95% CI 1.62-5.28). Conclusions. A pandemic-era setting-specific burnout effect emerged in emergency nursing that workforce-composition controls cannot explain. The 2022 cycle establishes a pre-exit baseline against which the 2026 NSSRN will serve as the falsifiable test of post-Omicron veteran exit. Nursing pipeline replacement lag exceeds the interval before 2026 data arrives; the consequences of inaction fall on populations dependent on ED-based residual access.

11
Spermidine suppresses glial inflammation and parkinsonian abnormalities in ATP13A2 deficiency

Cascalho, A.; Sati, A.; Dhondt, H.; Schoonvliet, N.; Kaempf, N.; Coccia, E.; Mamalaki, A.; Behrens, M. I.; Brüggemann, N.; Glatzel, M.; Baekelandt, V.; Klein, C.; Eggermont, J.; Verstreken, P.; Blanchard, J.; Vangheluwe, P.

2026-06-04 neurology 10.64898/2026.05.23.26353575 medRxiv
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Pathogenic variants in ATP13A2, which encodes an endolysosomal polyamine exporter, cause Kufor-Rakeb syndrome and are associated with early-onset parkinsonism and related neurodegenerative disorders, however, the mechanisms by which ATP13A2 dysfunction drives disease remain incompletely defined. In Atp13a2 knockout mice, we identified an early, transient reduction in brain polyamines that precedes overt gliosis and behavioural abnormalities. Pharmacological polyamine depletion exacerbates phenotypes, whereas oral supplementation of spermidine, but not spermine, rescues parkinsonian symptoms establishing metabolic polyamine deficiency as a pathogenic driver. Mechanistically, spermidine counteracts microglia lysosomal dysfunction in the brain and exerts mitochondrial antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects in primary mouse microglia, thereby improving neuronal integrity. In the absence of Atp13a2, microglial spermidine import relies on the related polyamine transporter Atp13a3. Importantly, these findings translate to human systems, whereby spermidine attenuates inflammation in ATP13A2-deficient human differentiated microglia, while postmortem ATP13A2-deficient brain analysis confirms increased microglia reactivity. Spermidine also rescues motor deficits and dopaminergic neuron loss in ATP13A2-deficient Drosophila and other fly parkinsonism models. Together, these findings identify early polyamine dysregulation as a mechanistic contributor to ATP13A2-associated parkinsonism and nominate spermidine supplementation as a potential therapeutic strategy for ATP13A2-driven pathology and possibly a broader range of parkinsonian sub-types.

12
Cultural engagement and mental disorders: A prospective negative control analysis of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing with linked Hospital Episode Statistics

Qin, P.; Steptoe, A.; Fancourt, D.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354991 medRxiv
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Cultural engagement is associated longitudinally with better mental health and reduced depression incidence, but evidence has largely relied on self-reported symptoms and diagnoses, leaving uncertainty about clinically recorded disorders, and residual confounding remains a concern. Here, we examined whether cultural engagement (including going to cinemas, museums, galleries, exhibitions, theatre, concerts, or opera) predicts hospital-treated mental disorders in 8,274 adults aged 50 years or older from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Participant records were linked to ICD-10 diagnoses in Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality records with follow-up of up to 20 years. In fully adjusted Cox models accounting for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and social factors and multiple testing, frequent cultural engagement was associated with lower risk of any mental disorders (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.62-0.82, FDR adjusted P value<0.001), dementia (0.71, 0.56-0.89, FDR adjusted P value=0.010), substance misuse (0.75, 0.59-0.95,FDR adjusted P value=0.040), and mood disorders (0.73, 0.56-0.95, FDR adjusted P value=0.044), but not neurotic disorders. Associations persisted after excluding early incident cases and adjusting for baseline depressive symptoms and cognition, and showed robustness to unmeasured confounders. To further probe causality, eye disease, ear disease, and traumatic brain injury, which share similar socio-demographic profiles to mental disorders, were prespecified as negative control outcomes. Cultural engagement was not associated with any negative control outcomes. These findings provide triangulated statistical data to suggest that cultural engagement is associated with reduced risk of several clinically recorded mental disorders and support further testing of cultural engagement as a population mental health strategy.

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Exploratory Assessment of Pulsed-Wave Doppler Representations of Lung Sounds Using Deep Learning: An In-Vitro Phantom Study

Saad, A. A.; Murthi, S. B.; Boctor, E. M.; Teeter, W. A.; Seam, N.

2026-06-10 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.06.09.26353787 medRxiv
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The increasing availability of portable ultrasound systems motivates exploration of novel approaches to respiratory signal assessment. In this in-vitro study, we investigate whether pulsed-wave (PW) Doppler ultrasound can capture structured spectral patterns from replayed lung sound recordings. Digitized respiratory sounds were replayed through a tissue-mimicking ultrasound phantom, generating 1,478 PW Doppler spectral images from recordings associated with healthy subjects and several externally labeled disease categories. Exploratory classification experiments using a ResNet-18 architecture demonstrated that these Doppler representations contain learnable differences under controlled conditions. These findings motivate further investigation into PW Doppler as a potential representation of respiratory acoustics.

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Universal Periodic Review recommendations and trajectories of maternal health between 2005 and 2023: a longitudinal ecological analysis of 89 countries

Uppal, A.; Thomas, R.; De Pasquale, M.; Sillo, J.; Getahun, H.

2026-06-05 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354800 medRxiv
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Background: The Universal Periodic Review (UPR) is a peer-review mechanism established to hold UN Member States accountable for human rights including the right to health, yet evidence on its impact on health outcomes is limited. We evaluated whether UPR engagement is associated with accelerated improvements in maternal health trajectories. Methods and Findings: We conducted a longitudinal ecological analysis of 89 countries with a baseline maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 70 or greater per 100,000 live births in 2005. Outcomes were trajectories of annual MMR, skilled birth attendance (SBA), and contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), from 2005 to 2023. The exposure was the volume of health-related UPR recommendations received across three cycles, thematically classified using a validated rule-based algorithm. Mixed-effects models adjusted for time-varying GDP per capita and historical fragility. The 89 countries received 41,733 UPR recommendations across three cycles, of which 405 (1%) were related to maternal health. Maternal health recommendations were preferentially directed at countries with higher baseline MMR and lower SBA. After adjustment, each additional maternal health recommendation was associated with a 0.24% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.08, 0.40] faster annual reduction in MMR, a 0.52% [0.12, 0.91] faster annual gain in the odds of SBA, and a 0.21% [0.09, 0.34] faster annual gain in the odds of CPR. Broader recommendations on women's health and health systems and services were also associated with faster annual improvements in trajectories across all three outcomes; recommendations on abortion, family planning, sexual health and wellbeing, and sexual education tended to be directed towards lower-burden countries and were not associated with differences in any trajectories. It is important to note that the ecological design precludes causal inference. Conclusions: Receiving UPR recommendations on the themes of maternal health, womens health, and health systems and services are associated with accelerated improvements in maternal health trajectories among high-burden countries. These findings suggest that international human rights accountability mechanisms may have a role in supporting national progress on maternal health.

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STELLAR: A flexible ensemble learning framework integrating rare variants to enhance polygenic risk prediction

Chen, T.; Li, X.; Mazumder, R.; Zhang, H.; Lin, X.

2026-06-09 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.07.26355109 medRxiv
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Whole-exome and whole-genome sequencing technology has enabled the discovery of rare genetic variants associated with human health and diseases. However, existing statistical methods used for rare variant association testing are not well-suited for building genetic risk prediction models that jointly incorporate rare and common variants. We propose STELLAR, a flexible ensemble learning-based approach to compute rare variant polygenic risk scores (PRS) using association summary statistics to enhance conventional common variant PRS. Our method combines burden-based and penalty-based rare variant analysis and leverages functional annotation information to prioritize potentially causal variants within the prediction models. In simulation studies, PRS using STELLAR consistently showed the highest prediction accuracy compared to models using common variants alone or rare variant burdens. Applied to UK Biobank whole-exome sequencing data (n=310,831) across eight continuous and five binary traits, STELLAR significantly improved prediction accuracy, refined stratification of individuals at the highest genetic risk beyond common variants, and prioritized biologically relevant genes. STELLAR provides a scalable strategy to incorporate rare variants into PRS in addition to common variants, advancing precision risk prediction and enabling more comprehensive assessment of genetic contributions to complex diseases.

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Multiplexed temporal SWCNT biosensor combined with convolutional autoencoding identifies ALS-specific serum protein corona signatures

Sirtori, R.; Lopez, R. M.; Li, H.; Liu, C.; Fisk, N.; Roxbury, D. E.; Fallini, C.

2026-06-08 neurology 10.64898/2026.06.08.26354966 medRxiv
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Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) lacks a validated blood-based diagnostic, and the field is increasingly moving from single-molecule markers toward integrative, multi-component signatures. Here we present a liquid-biopsy strategy that transduces disease dependent serum-nanoparticle interactions into a learnable near-infrared spectral phenotype. A sensor array of twelve DNA-functionalized single-walled carbon nanotube (SWCNT) chiralities, functionalized with (GT)6 ssDNA coupled with a deep learning model was tested on serum from 20 ALS patients and 19 age- and sex-matched controls (n = 39, TargetALS). Our multiplexed sensor design (12 SWCNT chiralities) and data acquisition strategy based on excitation-emission matrices acquired at three timepoints (0, 6, 24 h) was conceived to maximize sensor carried information. Indeed, we show that the array generates partially independent temporal dynamics across chiralities governed primarily by tube diameter. To decode this multiplexed, time-resolved signal, we trained a dual-objective convolutional autoencoder that jointly optimizes reconstruction and classification, achieving 84.6% cross-validated accuracy (AUC = 0.87). Selected latent features were reproducible across an independent same-subject experimental batch and correlated with serum neurofilament light chain, linking the spectral phenotype to a clinically relevant neurodegeneration marker. Mass spectrometry supported a molecular basis for discrimination, revealing an ALS-biased protein corona enriched in adaptive-immune and inflammatory proteins. Together, these results establish proof of principle that time-resolved, multi-chirality SWCNT spectral sensing can compress complex serum composition into a reproducible near-infrared biomarker signature for ALS.

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Shifting patterns of importation risk of Bundibugyo Ebola virus disease to Europe under outbreak expansion scenarios

Fanelli, F.; Parino, F.; Poletto, C.; Colizza, V.

2026-06-04 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.31.26354511 medRxiv
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The 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has already generated international spread to Uganda, raising concerns about further regional and international dissemination. Using International Air Transport Association origin-destination passenger flows, we assessed relative exposure to Ebola virus disease importation into Europe under six outbreak expansion scenarios reflecting plausible pathways of geographical spread, including cross-border transmission and amplification in highly connected regional capitals. Relative exposure patterns remained largely unchanged under localized transmission in eastern DRC and border-spillover scenarios. Expansion into South Sudan generated a first structural increase in importation pressure to Europe through the connectivity associated with Juba, while hypothetical amplification in Kampala, Kigali, and Kinshasa substantially increased importation pressure and reshaped exposure patterns across Europe. Across all scenarios, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom remained among the most exposed countries. Mobility-informed scenario analyses support preparedness as the geography of the outbreak evolves.

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Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Human Metapneumovirus and Potential Impact of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Interventions in the United States

Li, K.; Perniciaro, S.; Kwon, J.; Grubaugh, N. D.; Weinberger, D. M.; Pitzer, V. E.

2026-06-04 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354616 medRxiv
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Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) causes acute lower respiratory infections, primarily affecting young children and older adults, with seasonal outbreaks peaking annually in March or April in the United States and other temperate regions in the Northern hemisphere. However, the factors driving HMPV seasonality in the United States remain poorly understood. We analyzed laboratory-confirmed HMPV cases and age-specific emergency department visits across 10 US regions, fitting an age-stratified dynamic transmission model to assess spatiotemporal patterns and investigate the influence of environmental variables and viral interference from RSV on HMPV transmission rates. We found that models incorporating climate variables into the transmission rate, including vapor pressure, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and minimum temperature, could not capture the timing of HMPV activity across all regions. Instead, HMPV timing was associated with RSV activity, with the HMPV transmission rate reduced in the presence of RSV. We showed that, unlike RSV, only models incorporating viral interference could reproduce the biennial pattern of HMPV observed in some regions, characterized by alternating late-small and early-large epidemics. Furthermore, our model successfully reproduced post-COVID-19 HMPV and RSV epidemics and predicted that RSV interventions are not likely to lead to a substantial increase in HMPV activity despite decreasing competition from RSV. Our work unravels the spatiotemporal dynamics of HMPV and its interaction with RSV, informing future seasonal forecasting and intervention strategies for HMPV.

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Positioning Early Phase CNS Trials for Regulatory and Investor Success: Strategic Implications of the Single Phase 3 Approval Paradigm

Schmidt, P.; Preskorn, S.

2026-06-08 neurology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26353604 medRxiv
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In February 2026, the FDA announced that a single pivotal phase 3 (P3) trial would become the new default standard for drug approval - a regulatory direction that had been legally enabled since the FDA Modernization Act of 1997. This announcement has strategic, scientific, and economic implications for drug developers, contract research organizations (CROs), and biotech investors. We argue that the expansion of this framework, originally reserved for various niche submissions, represents a paradigm change, dramatically increasing the value of rigorous early phase (P1 and P2) trial design, requiring sponsors to establish both statistical efficacy signals and mechanistic biological understanding before entering phase 3. Using a CNS indication cost model, we show that single P3 approval can reduce total development expenditure from approximately $447 million over 14 years to $297 million over 12 years - a savings of $150 million and providing two years of additional commercial runway for a modeled CNS drug. Case examples including lecanemab, omaveloxolone, and tofersen illustrate how biomarker-informed early phase strategies can establish the confirmatory evidence necessary for single-trial approval. We provide practical guidance for maximizing the value of P1 and P2 under this evolving framework.

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Subthalamic DBS Engages Right-lateralized Frontal Control to Improve Gait Adaptation in Parkinson's

Hanafi, I.; Pozzi, N. G.; Habib, R.; Falciglia, S.; Del Vecchio Del Vecchio, J.; Remore, L. G.; Marotta, G.; Buck, A.; Pezzoli, G.; Volkmann, J.; Isaias, I. U.; Palmisano, C.

2026-06-09 neurology 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354536 medRxiv
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Adapting ongoing gait patterns to environmental challenges is essential for safe navigation through the environment. Impairment of gait adaptation is common in many neurodegenerative disorders, such as Parkinson's disease (PD), where it hampers mobility and limits quality of life. The neural control of gait adaptation remains largely unclear, thereby limiting the development of targeted treatments, such as deep brain stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus (STN-DBS). We integrated clinical, kinematic, brain metabolic imaging, and electrophysiological data, obtained during a fully immersive virtual reality overground walking task, to characterize the neural underpinnings of gait adaptation performance during dynamic obstacle avoidance and its improvement with STN-DBS. Movement kinematics, brain oscillatory activity, and metabolic activation were simultaneously acquired in 12 patients with PD during rest and gait adaptation, under active or paused STN-DBS, using inertial measurement units, electroencephalography, and three separate [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography scans. Eight age-matched healthy subjects completed the same task for comparative kinematic analyses. All patients showed significant clinical improvement with STN-DBS. During the gait adaptation task with paused stimulation, patients exhibited increased metabolic activity in the cerebellum and sensorimotor cortex. Active STN-DBS selectively enhanced thalamic and superior frontal gyrus (SFG) metabolism, while concomitantly reducing cerebellar uptake. Right-lateralized SFG metabolism correlated with gait adaptation performance, with DBS-driven shifts toward greater right SFG activity predicting the magnitude of gait adaptation improvement. This correlation was independent of baseline asymmetry in clinical impairment, electrode placement, or structural connectivity to the SFG. Of note, STN-DBS amplitude asymmetry emerged as an independent predictor of right-lateralization of SFG metabolism. EEG recordings confirmed this lateralized network modulation, with theta-band asymmetry paralleling PET findings. Our findings identify a lateralized thalamo-cortical network supporting gait adaptation in PD and highlight a distinctive role for the SFG. We further show that effective STN-DBS acts as a lateralized regulator, dynamically rebalancing cortico-thalamic circuits to support context-appropriate gait control. The observed right-hemispheric lateralization may foster novel image-guided programming strategies to enhance the consistency and effectiveness of gait control in PD.